Li Xianjun: Status Quo, Misunderstandings and Path Breakthrough of Independent Innovation in Automobile Industry
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I. Background to the problem In recent years, with the rapid development of China’s automobile industry, the supply and demand of automobiles has increased significantly, and the automobile has played a significant role in driving the national economy. In the “11th Five-Year Planâ€, 23 provinces and cities will be the automotive industry. As a pillar industry. Since the birth of China's automobile industry, the attention and controversy in the automobile industry from all walks of life have been unprecedented. In particular, attention and arguments have been made on independent brands, independent research and development, and independent innovation.
The essence of this is the issue of industrial upgrading, that is, the leap from qualitative change to qualitative change. Industry cognition is the precondition for the healthy development of any industry. However, there are still many differences, even prejudices and misunderstandings in the discussion and exploration of auto industry innovation issues in China. We still have no conclusions that have been proved by the development of the world auto industry for a century. The restless and pointless arguments, like the unquestioning debates such as whether the car should enter the family, are still the focus of widespread debate. If we cannot achieve a certain degree of unification in the auto industry's understanding of independent innovation, it will be difficult to choose an innovation strategy that suits our country's reality, it will be difficult to formulate an effective innovation policy, and it is difficult to determine a reasonable path for innovation; if we cannot stop Too many endless debates, then China's auto industry will miss a new round of automotive technology changes brought about by the great opportunity period, this opportunity may be the development of the world auto industry as China's auto industry to open up the last chance window.
Second, trying to answer the key questions
This speech tried to answer several key questions: Is it necessary for China's auto industry to need independent innovation? Is it wrong for the market to change technology and joint ventures? Does the joint venture model hinder the development of independent innovation in China's auto industry? What are the main factors that affect China's auto industry's ability for independent innovation, and are the weak technical foundations the main interpretive factors? Can the difference in the independent innovation capability of commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles and the difference in the ability of independent innovation between large and small enterprises be explained only by technical level or technical level? Can joint ventures produce their own brands in the end? Can we achieve technological catch-up and technology leapfrogging? What kind of innovation path should China's auto industry choose? How to explain the innovation ability and export ability of late-stage small enterprises such as Chery, Geely, and Hafei. Can we provide perfect explanations only from the technical and product levels? Are the trajectories of these latecomers' innovations in line with the general laws of technological learning, and are they in line with yesterday's innovation history of famous multinationals?
Third, on the overall judgment of China's auto industry independent innovation
Some people completely negate the efforts and capabilities of China's auto industry for independent innovation. They are one-sided and subjective. Since 1956, the national, local, corporate, and scientific research institutions have invested a large amount of resources and power for independent innovation in China's auto industry. At present, China has made certain achievements in the independent innovation of commercial vehicles, although there is still a certain gap between the advanced enterprises in the world. In the low-end technologies and products of passenger vehicles, the small-scale enterprises that have entered the market show strong vitality in independent innovation, and have formed a certain number of independent brands and become the main force for China’s exports.
However, on the high-end platform of cars, there is still a big gap between the independent innovation capability of Chinese auto companies and multinational companies, and the key technologies and core technologies are seriously lacking. What is the international competition position of China's auto industry? It is a big country of manufacture rather than a strong country. Joint ventures are more likely to show a combination of core technology in foreign countries or even a match; what we get is processing profits, not excessive profits. What kind of capabilities have been cultivated in the past 20 years of joint ventures or excessive joint ventures? What is cultivated is manufacturing capability, not innovation ability!
The reverse path of innovation chosen by the government and enterprises is correct: “introduction—digestion—absorption—innovation—output†is in line with the theory of catch-up by countries in late-developed countries. The automotive industry in South Korea and Japan also chose this route in the early stages of development. However, why did China not succeed and South Korea and Japan succeeded? The direct reason is that China's "breaking of the innovation chain" means that digestion and absorption do not pay enough attention and input is insufficient.
Key technologies and core technologies are fundamental to the development of the industry. At present, domestic joint ventures have basically formed the technology of multinational companies and have formed technology locks to some extent. This is the biggest obstacle and trap for the future independent innovation of the automobile industry in China. Because the joint venture Chinese companies are all major domestic companies or "pioneer enterprises."
Fourth, China's self-innovation capacity of the car is not strong and the eight major errors on the Chinese auto independent innovation is not strong reasons, there are many domestic explanations, of which there are two focus: First, the joint venture to, and second, the traditional large enterprise innovation Lack of motivation. I think these two points are biased and fair.
First of all, the joint venture's role in the development of China's auto industry cannot be eliminated. The joint venture plays an important role in the training of talents, technology learning, technology spillovers, and the layout of parts and components of cars in China. Is it possible to judge whether Geely and Chery can emerge without a joint venture? Of course, there are certain, some and even serious problems for the joint venture of Chinese cars. One is whether the opening is excessive and whether the joint venture is excessive? Our research judged that our opening is somewhat excessive and that our joint ventures are somewhat overdone. Everyone knows that some industries in developed countries in the West, including South Korea, are controllable rather than noncompetitive. In particular, the Korean and Japanese governments have adopted a joint venture model for the automotive industry. Our conclusion is that joint ventures are not a hindrance to the root cause of independent innovation. The key is that joint ventures and government management methods need to be reconsidered. China's auto industry is taking the path of capital and market for technology, while Korea and Japan are taking the path of capital for technology. The specific form of joint venture: We extracted good assets and re-established joint ventures with foreign companies, coupled with higher wages and benefits of joint ventures, resulting in the inflow of excellent technical and managerial talents from the Chinese side to joint ventures, and the foundation of this independent brand was greatly weakened. In the early stages of development, South Korean and Japanese auto companies did not take such a form of joint venture. For example, Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd. sold its equity to Ford's technology, retained its own brand, and took the road of independent development instead of establishing a joint venture.
Second, I don't think it can be generalized about "the lack of motivation for traditional big companies." Assuming this conclusion is established, then what makes the most sense is why the large auto group lacks innovation in the car? There are many reasons. The most important reason is whether it is in the government? First, does the government impose its national will very effectively on the operations of large-scale auto companies? In the 1960s, the Korean government imposed its own brands and independent operations on the strategic direction and operation of private auto companies such as modern ones. The central or local governments that are the shareholders of China's large-scale automobile vehicles have the responsibility and legal requirements for enterprises to implement independent research and development and independent innovation strategies. However, our government has not played its due role. Is this one-sidedly separated by "government and enterprises?" Misleading? Secondly, the government only assesses the leaders of state-owned auto companies with no tactical assessment; that is, it only assesses annual production volume, sales, and profit targets, but does not set long-term innovation targets. There are no rigid regulations for independent research and development and independent brands. With independent R&D investment and a long period of output, the leaders of state-owned enterprises will of course not take the initiative to initiate independent innovation during their term of office. Third, is the government's control over the industry acceptable and reasonable? The long-term restrictions on private capital may be the greatest regret or lost property in the development of this industry. The fact that the government controls both the “entry†of the industry and the “export†of the industry violates the principle of full competition. Fourth, China has implemented the "import substitution strategy" while South Korea and Japan are "export-oriented strategies."
Third, the weak technical foundation is not the only explanatory factor for the weak capability of independent innovation of the Chinese automobile industry. Historically, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have been weak countries in automotive technology. The lack of independent innovation capability in China's auto industry also has many problems such as internal corporate governance and management. For example, the lack of function and strategic function of the parent company of China Automotive Enterprise Group. The parent company of the group is the strategic headquarters of the group. One of its important functions is to provide technical and product platforms for group members. To do this, it must establish and own powerful Academia Sinica or R&D centers, such as Toyota, General Motors, Volkswagen, Ford, etc. Wait. Does our country’s corporate group really play this role? No! Some large group R&D centers or technology centers cannot provide sufficient support for domestic joint ventures and holding subsidiaries, resulting in some product lines only being completed by joint venture companies or holding subsidiaries themselves, leading to some large groups in light trucks, passenger cars, etc. The competitiveness of the subdivided industries is insufficient and shrinking. For another example, unlike the famous foreign automotive multinational corporations that belong to industrial-type enterprise groups, most of China's automobile enterprise groups are “purely holding†and develop towards “hollowingâ€, “financialization†and “marginalizationâ€. Industrial auto groups must control three strategic businesses: R&D, strategic procurement, and strategic marketing. From this point of departure, the reform and restructuring of Dongfeng Motor Company is not a success, but a failure; the future choice of Dongfeng Motor should be “returning†and returning to the industrial group.
Finally, the formation of such a pattern in China’s automobile industry first stems from the pattern of cognition, lack of understanding of industrial laws and many misunderstandings in the auto industry's independent innovation, mainly in seven aspects: First, it is believed that independent innovation is to negate joint ventures, that is, self. Innovation and closed innovation. The second is pan-globalization. It is believed that there is no national industry under the conditions of globalization. Therefore, independent research and development and self-owned brands have lost their significance. They have negated independent brands and independent innovation with a purely trade, employment, and taxation perspective. The third is nothingness. They believe that China's auto technology is very weak and independent research and development cannot and does not deserve it. Fourth, the core technology and self-owned brands can be exogenously exchanged, and the joint venture process automatically acquires core technologies. Joint ventures can produce their own brands. Fifth, the concept of comparative advantage, China's auto industry can only play a comparative advantage to gain development. Sixth, it is the conclusion of the industrial hypothesis, and often assumes some assumptions of industrial development as scientific conclusions and guides industrial policies, planning, and actual business activities. For example, the scale of the auto industry is one million vehicles, and the development of a new vehicle model is US$10 billion or One hundred million U.S. dollars. Seventh, the imitation was regarded as plagiarism. Some enterprises dispared Geely and Chery and ignored the law of technological learning and the historical process of the growth of the world's major auto companies. Eight is the inverse of the technical route choice. The main performance is that large companies start to innovate from the high end of technology, which is very dangerous; industrial policies have long been used to limit discrimination against small-displacement vehicles.
V. Possible breakthroughs in the independent innovation of China's auto industry
The overall pursuit of breakthroughs in the two technical tracks of the automotive industry: one is on the traditional technology track, and the other is on the technical track of new energy and new power.
On the track of traditional technologies, the first is to follow the catch-up theory of technology in general, and continue to follow the path of “introduction-digestion-absorption-innovation-outputâ€; the second is to insist on the path from imitation to innovation, and on imitation Strive to achieve a leap from replicating to creative imitation; third, from gradual innovation to breakthrough innovation, from partial innovation to overall innovation, and breakthrough in innovation from peripheral technology to core technology; and fourth, to follow the principles of technological learning and use of The growth path of multinational companies such as Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford, China's auto companies should choose products and technologies from the low end to the high end, and should not adopt the path of technological innovation from the high end to the low end. The procedural nature of technology accumulation and the rootedness of core technologies have raised vigilance for the current domestic giants' independent innovation “one-step high-end positioning pathâ€; Chery and Geely and other backward companies’ innovation paths provide technological accumulation for their future strategic growth. basis.
In the new energy and new power technology track, it is necessary to break through the scale and cost constraints and the difficulty of commercialization. From the historical trend of industrial development, we firmly establish the path from hybrid to fuel cell innovation. To avoid the vision of a purely technical perspective, we must integrate technological, economic, and management ideas to seek breakthroughs in the innovation path. Some people in the country that have denied negligence in hybrids should have a deep reflection on the good performance of Toyota's hybrid cars in the market today.
Sixth, strategic thinking on independent innovation of China's auto industry
First of all, it is necessary to break through the cognitive misunderstandings and strengthen the overall understanding of the laws and autonomous innovation of the automobile industry. The government, enterprises, and research institutions all have responsibilities. Secondly, we must pay attention to the following three points concerning independent innovation: First, independent innovation does not necessarily lead to competitive advantage, technological leapfrogging, and market leapfrogging, because there are also problems of technological identity and market identity. There is a period of silence in the market for new products. In the history of the invention of ballpoint pens, the period of silence in the market was 8 years, the period of silence in electronic computers was 10 years, and the period of silence in personal computers was 6 years. Second, independent innovation does not mean negating joint venture cooperation. Although "market-for-technology" is unsuccessful, there is absolutely no Chinese auto industry today. Third, independent innovation is not just a concept of technology. “Manufactured products are not equal to the manufacturing market. Light independent innovation is not a process of industrialization. Industrialized products are not competitive in the market. The country’s industries are not competitive.
Third, the government and enterprises must achieve a revolutionary innovation in management methods that require a lot of "revolutionary" aspects. For example, the most urgent task of the government is to change the assessment of state-owned enterprises from tactical assessment to strategic assessment. To achieve the transition from “inbound exports†to “exports†in the management of the industry, the national will must be imposed on the enterprises. For auto companies, special attention should be paid to “full-value chain independent innovation†to avoid innovations only by R&D departments and technical departments, and to form “independent innovation islandsâ€; the organizational structure needs to be matched and the group parent company must be established and formed. Strategic business: R&D and core technology platform, strategic procurement and strategic marketing, among which R&D and core technology platforms are the key to the strategy, and decide on the other two strategic businesses, which in turn determine financial control rights and profit claim rights.
Finally, it is necessary to establish industrial innovation networks and innovation platforms centered on research institutions such as companies, governments, and universities. In particular, the government must focus on investment in establishing a common technology platform and avoid decentralized investment.
Seven conclusions
The key issues in the development of China's auto industry are, first of all, not industrial fundamentals, technical and managerial capabilities, and other factors, but rather insufficient awareness of the industry. There are many fatal cognitive misunderstandings and traps in the development of China's auto industry, which has distorted industrial policies and industrial development processes, and has failed to cultivate independent innovation capabilities after half a century. To achieve a fundamental breakthrough in the Chinese auto industry, we must first break through misunderstandings, and then seek to establish breakthroughs in technology, management, and strategic choices and decision-making methods on the basis of independent innovation as a strategic program. The government and enterprises must be in management style and decision-making. Ways to achieve innovation, or to achieve independent innovation in the automotive industry can only be a slogan.
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