Vocational Truck Production Surge Likely to Continue in 2025
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With strong end markets and upcoming technology-driven regulations, vocational truck buyers are not only eager to upgrade their fleets ahead of schedule but also well-positioned to do so, as highlighted in the latest release of the *North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook*.
"Although one month doesn't necessarily signal a trend, September's order data suggests that demand for limited build slots between now and early 2027 is already building up. While tractor demand remains uncertain, vocational truck production is expected to continue rising into 2025," said Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT.
He added, "We've talked extensively this year about the split in the Class 8 market. On the other hand, the U.S. and Canadian tractor markets are still flooded with capacity due to strong retail sales in 2024, which has kept freight rates from rising significantly. After a ten-quarter decline, carrier profitability saw a small rebound in Q3, supported by steady freight volumes and gradual capacity reduction. As tractor sales are expected to slow in early 2025, one key element of the recovery—capacity rationalization—is finally taking shape."
"Even as we better understand the broader economic factors boosting demand for heavy vocational equipment, the tractor market continues to face pressure," Vieth concluded.
**NA CV Forecast Report Overview**
The North American Commercial Vehicle (NA CV) forecast report provides a comprehensive look at the trucking industry’s future. It includes an analysis of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market insights, and five-year forecasts. The goal of the report is to help OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other stakeholders make informed decisions in a highly cyclical industry. The report covers forward-looking metrics like orders and backlogs, along with build and retail sales forecasts. It also examines current conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, tractors, and trailers, as well as macroeconomic trends in North America, freight and carrier performance, used equipment valuation, and regulatory impacts.
**ACT Research Overview**
ACT Research is a leading provider of data, analysis, and forecasts for the commercial vehicle, trailer, and bus industries in North America and China. Its services are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is part of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. The company’s executives have received numerous accolades, including membership on the National Association for Business Economics Board of Directors, appointments as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate four-year economic forecast. ACT senior staff have also been recognized for top forecasts by the Chicago Federal Reserve, the Wall Street Journal, and USA Today. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.