Vocational Truck Production Surge Likely to Continue in 2025
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With strong end-market support and upcoming technology-driven regulations, vocational truck buyers are not only eager to upgrade their fleets ahead of schedule but also well-positioned to do so, as highlighted in the latest release of the *North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook*.
“Although one month doesn’t necessarily signal a trend, September’s order numbers indicate that companies are starting to line up for limited production slots through early 2027. With tractor demand uncertain, we expect vocational truck production to remain strong into 2025,†said Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst at ACT.
He added, “We’ve talked extensively this year about the split in the Class 8 market. On the other hand, the U.S. and Canadian tractor markets are still flooded with capacity due to strong retail sales in 2024, which have kept freight rates from rising significantly. After a ten-quarter decline, carrier profitability improved slightly in Q3, supported by steady freight volumes and gradual capacity reduction. As tractor sales are expected to slow in early 2025, one key element of the recovery—capacity rationalization—is finally taking shape.â€
“Even as we better understand the macroeconomic factors boosting demand for heavy vocational equipment, the tractor market continues to face pressure,†Vieth concluded.
**NA CV Forecast Report Overview**
The NA CV Forecast provides a comprehensive view of the commercial vehicle industry, covering current demand trends, strategic and tactical market analysis, and long-term forecasts extending five years out. Its goal is to help OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other stakeholders make informed decisions in an industry known for its cyclical nature. The report includes detailed insights on North American markets, focusing on forward-looking indicators like orders and backlogs. It also covers build and retail sales forecasts, current conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, tractors, and trailers, along with regional macroeconomic data, freight and carrier performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory impacts.
**ACT Research Overview**
ACT Research is the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Their insights are widely used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, their suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. The company has earned recognition from industry peers, including appointments to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics and roles as Consulting Economist for the National Private Truck Council. ACT's senior team has been honored with awards such as the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast and the Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook. More information is available at www.actresearch.net.