Container shipping is better than expected in January

In fact, it was a surprise year for container shipowners in 2010. From the first quarter, the reduction in losses, the turnaround in the second quarter, and the outbreak of a profitable supply in the third quarter, broke out despite the fourth quarter. With seasonal corrections, the freight rates were revised downwards, but after the shipowners restarted the mechanism for curtailing the transport energy supply, the freight rate decline rate was also effectively controlled.

Shipowners said that after the container shipping market opened a wave of rebound at the end of December, container freight rates and shipments from Shanghai to Europe and the United States were better than expected. Both the European and US West Line operations have started to reflect price increases. It is expected that This wave of freight rates and the surcharge of the wavelet pulled back, at least until the end of January.

However, although the shipowners said that the situation in January seems to be okay, the market will be relatively relaxed after the Lunar New Year in February. The market voice is still quite divergent for the outlook for container shipping for the whole of 2011.

At present, there is a voice in the market. After the peak of the boom in 2005, the profitability of container ship owners in 2006 experienced a significant decline. It is precisely because of the superb profitability of container ship owners in 2010, which in turn was a result of container shipping in 2011. The business climate has reservations; however, shipowners stated that the new ship supply rate was far higher than the increase in traffic demand in 2006, which was the main reason for the sharp decline in profits of the container shipping industry in that year. In 2009, the market was still shrouded in the financial crisis. In the aftermath, the shipbuilder’s willingness to build a new ship is relatively conservative. The increase in supply in 2011 should be roughly in line with the growth in traffic demand. The pressure is relatively light, and there is even a chance of a small supply shortage.

In the condition of roughly balanced transport volume, the shipowners took measures as early as January to offer some route prices and impose additional surcharges in January, showing that the shipowners have the confidence and determination to support the freight rates for the entire year. It helps to agree on the price of the Americas line in May. On the other hand, in the contract price portion, due to the 2009 bloodshed price competition among shipowners, most of the large shipowners already have a consensus to control prices through deceleration, cabin downs, and downshifts rather than bargaining. The ship owner did not want to compete in the way he had done. Therefore, even if there was a quarterly change in the supply of goods in the next year, it would not be a case of a bargaining price between the big ship owners.

In addition to the balance of freight rates, another issue that is worth noting is the oil price that will affect container ship owners' profitability. In 2011, this may be an important key.

Starting from the third quarter of 2010, international crude oil prices have started a wave of upward movement and have risen 20% in the fourth quarter. After the opening of the market in 2011, oil prices continued to rise. Taking Brent crude oil prices in London as an example, the closing price of US$94.6/barrel on January 3 has reached a new high of nearly 27 months. Market research institutions have revised up the oil price forecast for 2011, arguing that oil prices have risen above 100 US dollars again. "Sooner than later". As container shipping operators can pass on fuel surcharges and peak season surcharges during the peak season, the relative success rate of surcharges in the off-season is relatively low. If oil prices continue to climb in the next year, they will It will erode the profits of container shipping operators.

However, as a whole, the shipowner has observed the current situation in the retail industry in the United States and Europe, and pointed out that the demand for container shipping is fairly stable. Under the condition that transport capacity is not excessive, the market conditions are better than originally expected, despite 2010 The growth of the base period will boost the prosperity of the explosive growth will no longer be reproduced, but it is still optimistic about the 2011 container ship market situation will be a very healthy year.